PROPENSITY
TO FLY: THE DEVELOPMENT OF STATED CHOICE MODELS FOR AIR TRAVEL
Project
funded by EPSRC (Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council). November 2006 – April 2009
Principal
Investigator: Dr Tim Ryley
Research
Assistant: Dr Lisa Davison
Transport
Studies Group,
Civil
& Building Engineering
PROJECT
SUMMARY
Individuals
are flying more than ever before and over greater distances. The boom in
low-cost airlines such as Ryanair and easyJet has made air travel more
affordable and is stimulating leisure and increasingly business demand. The
research focus is on the general public and the choices they make when deciding
whether to fly or not. For instance, if air fares rise by 20%, but the time
taken to reach the airport falls by 10%, would an individual still choose to
fly for a particular journey?
The overall
goal of the research is to assess the propensity, or likelihood, of individuals
to fly. It concerns the development of stated choice models to assess the
propensity to fly, and how this propensity varies across different segments of
the population. Data for these modelling and segmentation tasks will largely
come from a questionnaire survey of individual flying preferences. Data will be
collected from over 1,000 residents of the
The project
will deliver a stated choice modelling capability and a greater understanding
of air travel market segments. Such findings will be of benefit to
aviation policy-makers, as they consider air travel demand forecasting and
future airport capacity. Airlines and regional airports will also be
beneficiaries, particularly those interested in the demand for air travel in
the
For further
information, contact: Dr Tim Ryley, Lecturer in Transport Studies,